Projected to concede most PL goals since Pep’s 1st season - leaky defence to cost Man City?

Manchester City won a historic treble last season, clinching the Premier League title, the FA Cup and the club’s first ever Champions League. Incredibly 11 months on, in mid April, they have the possibility of repeating that feat. Pep Guardiola’s team sit one point behind league leaders Arsenal in the Premier League table, play Chelsea in the FA Cup semi-final, and are level with Real Madrid going into the second leg of their Champions League quarter-final at the Etihad. 

However, one area of criticism you could aim at this Man City team this season, is that defensively they aren’t looking as secure as usual. Highlighted again by the three goals conceded at Real Madrid on Tuesday, the Sky Blues are conceding more goals, more shots on target and more chances than we have come to expect from this Man City team. If they carry on conceding at the same rate, Guardiola’s men are projected to concede the most goals they have conceded in a Premier League season since the Spaniard’s first term in charge. It could be the kryptonite to Man City’s trophy hopes this campaign. 

Man City’s defensive record this season 

Guardiola often gets the tag of being a very attacking offensive coach, but in fact, the defensive stability of his teams is a huge factor to his success. In each of the last three full Premier League seasons, no team has conceded less goals than Man City. Guardiola’s tactical evolution has led to us often seeing City line up with four orthodox centre-backs, with one of the defenders usually inverting to form a 3-2-4-1 build up. It means Man City are in better shape to deal with the counter-attack, can overload central areas, and box press teams in their own half.

However, this season Man City haven’t looked as sturdy. As can be seen above, if we look at the goals conceded statistics each season under Guardiola in the Premier League and the Champions League, the Sky Blues have conceded more goals this term (43) than in four full seasons under Guardiola already. Man City could still play 11 more games this campaign if they make it to the Champions League final again. That means it would likely be the worst defensive campaign in those two competitions combined since the Spaniard’s first season in England, and could even be the worst ever. 

In the latest table above you can see that in just the Premier League, if Man City keep conceding at the same rate as they have in the 31 games so far this season, they would concede 38 league goals. That would also be the worst since Guardiola’s first season, where the club finished third and conceded 39 goals. When trying to assess the reason behind this decline, it’s difficult to find obvious answers. Most of Man City’s key defenders have been available for most of the season, while their midfield lynchpin Rodri has only really missed games through suspension. An argument could be pointed towards a lack of motivation.

Having won the treble last season, perhaps some of the will to defend for their lives has dwindled. Another reason could arguably be that the club has no replacement for Rodri, and the Spaniard, so pivotal to City’s success, is suffering from fatigue. In the three games Rodri has missed through suspension in the league this season, Man City lost every game. It seems Guardiola doesn’t trust any other player to replicate the control Rodri gives the team, meaning the Spanish midfielder is forced to play practically every minute he is available. He appeared to look tired in the 3-3 draw at the Bernabeu.

Man City’s current squad boasts defenders with a combined market value of €231m. There’s no doubt the defensive talent is there. And in Guardiola, so is the top defensive coach. But if Man City are to claim a double treble, then they can’t afford to keep shipping goals at the current alarming rate. Whether the team can become a tighter defensive unit for the season’s run-in is likely to be a key factor to whether they are successful again.